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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation

112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.3%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.6%Based on 112K games
0%50.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.6%5.4%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bd3
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=112K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.6%), based on 112K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.0% win rate (152 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (956 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (3,545 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (10,641 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (23,315 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (32,417 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (28,008 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (12,162 games)
  • 2500+: 47.0% win rate (1,220 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 47.9% win rate (33,073 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (65,977 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (12,618 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (746 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (291 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (68 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,716 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,548 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (278 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (4,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,395 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (984 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (13,459 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (7,254 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (20,702 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (4,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (332 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (17,552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,730 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (965 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (888 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 112K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.9%) outperforms Classical (47.7%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 152 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 956 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (66K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.7%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.7%) win rate for white (746 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.