46K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.4% and 55.1%), based on 46K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 56% → 50%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 46K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (9.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (53.2%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 55.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 340 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 13.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.2%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.4%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.5%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-53.5%) win rate for white (183 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.