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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation

359 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.9%Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 63.1%Based on 359 games
0%58.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 63.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%14.8%33.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
11.Ne4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=359
Avg Length44 moves
Sharpness85%
Draw Rate14.8%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 58.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.7% and 63.1%), based on 359 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.2% · Breakpoint: 2200-2499

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 60% → 66%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.4% win rate (15 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.8% win rate (45 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.0% win rate (74 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.1% win rate (186 games)
  • 2500+: 66.2% win rate (31 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (61%), worst in Classical (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (57 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (271 games)
  • Rapid: 60.7% win rate (29 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (2 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799———
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 85.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (140 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 76.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 359 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (74 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.1%) outperforms Bullet (52.1%) by -2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 85.2 (moderately decisive), meaning 85.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.2%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 18.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.1%-55.1%) win rate for white (271 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-55.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.