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Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.4%Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.4%Based on 2.4M games
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.4%3.9%45.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
Analyzen=2.4M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 52.4%), based on 2.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (28,303 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.2% win rate (97,026 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.7% win rate (223,995 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (402,962 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (559,200 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.1% win rate (595,223 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (350,252 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (126,210 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (14,334 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (6,698 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (977,617 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (1,136,970 games)
  • Rapid: 48.6% win rate (266,022 games)
  • Classical: 46.8% win rate (10,198 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (10,756 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13,762 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,739 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (37,383 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (46,980 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (12,347 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (744 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (81,262 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (111,995 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (29,160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (834 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (2,268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (143,683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (200,944 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (53,877 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (2,190 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (2,333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (199,898 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (284,600 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (68,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (3,449 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (222,197 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (303,711 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (65,528 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (2,888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (175,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (145,657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (28,713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (635 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (94,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (28,054 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (3,697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (13,020 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (97K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (46.8%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 224K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 403K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 559K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 595K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 350K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.9%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.7%) win rate for white (978K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate for white (266K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.6%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.