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Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line

253K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.8%Based on 253K games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%5.6%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.e3
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=253K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.8%), based on 253K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (374 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (2,612 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (9,947 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (28,403 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (56,852 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (74,634 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.8% win rate (52,572 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (24,079 games)
  • 2500+: 48.1% win rate (3,508 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (62%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 61.9% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (78,806 games)
  • Blitz: 50.0% win rate (144,376 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (28,536 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (1,254 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,018 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (4,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (775 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (10,714 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (15,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (17,244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (33,293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (6,011 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (18,592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (45,757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (9,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (14,199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (30,906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (7,241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (9,986 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (12,092 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,959 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,279 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 253K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (9.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.0%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 42.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 374 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white (144K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.8%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.