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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line

727K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.2%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.3%Based on 727K games
0%52.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%5.3%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.e3
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line
Analyzen=727K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 52.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.3%), based on 727K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (1,314 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.8% win rate (7,186 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (24,126 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (65,981 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (138,469 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (205,950 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (176,809 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (93,769 games)
  • 2500+: 52.4% win rate (12,961 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (72 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (246,659 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (409,800 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (67,167 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (2,867 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (692 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (496 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (3,897 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (2,633 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (10,973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (10,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (26,222 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (33,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (6,142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (46,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (77,786 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (12,924 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (56,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (127,119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (21,059 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (49,793 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (108,455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (18,034 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (41,601 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (46,172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (5,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (9,936 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (2,868 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 727K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.3%) by 1.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 138K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 206K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 177K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 94K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate for white (247K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (410K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line is statistically favors white with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.