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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense

219K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.2%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.4%Based on 219K games
0%51.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.9%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...c6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense
Analyzen=219K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 51.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 51.4%), based on 219K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.9% win rate (782 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.1% win rate (4,574 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (14,009 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (30,993 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (50,701 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (59,020 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (39,941 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.0% win rate (16,328 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (2,227 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.9% win rate (13 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (43,793 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (132,040 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (40,476 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (2,253 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,258 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (540 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,007 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (7,805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (6,998 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (18,122 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (5,629 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (9,067 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (31,046 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (9,886 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (700 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (8,715 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (13,069 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (6,878 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (25,317 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (7,495 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (10,017 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,602 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,324 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (856 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 219K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (2.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Classical (46.2%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 782 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white (132K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.1%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-48.0%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.