27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 54.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.4% and 55.4%), based on 27K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 52% → 56%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (4.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (52.7%) outperforms Classical (50.4%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 498 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 287 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.8%) win rate for white (5.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.3%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-56.1%) win rate for white (206 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.