10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 54.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.4% and 55.0%), based on 10K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 39% → 53%
Best in Classical (56%), worst in Rapid (48%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Rapid (48.0%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 323 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 847 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 12.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 333 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 14.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.2%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.2%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.5%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.