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Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation

9.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.9%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.7%Based on 9.0K games
0%54.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
51.6%6.4%41.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bf4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation
Analyzen=9.0K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 54.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 55.7%), based on 9.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.6% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 67% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 67.4% win rate (20 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.1% win rate (85 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (184 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (384 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (807 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.5% win rate (1,333 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (1,820 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.3% win rate (2,954 games)
  • 2500+: 48.2% win rate (1,419 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (54%), worst in Blitz (51%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (2,703 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (5,300 games)
  • Rapid: 54.0% win rate (943 games)
  • Classical: 51.2% win rate (60 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 72.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (740 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (848 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (576 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (802 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.0%) outperforms Classical (51.2%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 384 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 807 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 11.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.8%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.7%) win rate for white (943 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.