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Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation

1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.5%Based on 1.7M games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.4%6.0%43.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...c6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation
Analyzen=1.7M
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.0%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.3% and 53.5%), based on 1.7M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (8,116 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (29,933 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.5% win rate (72,433 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (141,091 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (248,551 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (377,803 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (396,457 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (338,310 games)
  • 2500+: 45.5% win rate (114,898 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (1,135 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (574,296 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (945,493 games)
  • Rapid: 50.1% win rate (195,699 games)
  • Classical: 48.9% win rate (10,969 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,335 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,721 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,038 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (10,884 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (14,588 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (4,358 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (24,705 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (36,848 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (10,548 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (255 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (143 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (44,823 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (72,147 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (23,011 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (259 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (69,818 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (141,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (34,437 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (346 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (98,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (224,605 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (50,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (3,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (111,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (236,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (45,338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (2,343 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (134,015 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (180,513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (23,176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (539 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (76,301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (34,684 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (3,247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (654 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (338K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.8%) outperforms Classical (48.9%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 141K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 249K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 378K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 396K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 338K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 19.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.2%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white (574K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (945K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.3%) win rate for white (196K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.7%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.7%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.