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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation

123 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 41.1% – 55.7%Based on 123 games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.1% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%4.4%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.O-O-O
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation
Analyzen=123
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation has a 48.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 41.1% and 55.7%), based on 123 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 48%

1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1600-1799: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.7% win rate (12 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.9% win rate (45 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (51 games)
  • 2500+: 48.1% win rate (12 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (43 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (76 games)
  • Rapid: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599—————
1600-1799———
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 38.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 123 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (51 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.2% (90% CI: 38.9%-53.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.