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Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit

516K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.7%Range (90% confident): 57.6% – 57.8%Based on 516K games
0%57.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.6% – 57.8%
Outcome Distribution
56.0%3.3%40.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit
Analyzen=516K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 57.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.6% and 57.8%), based on 516K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.9% win rate (33,120 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.7% win rate (74,881 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.0% win rate (98,369 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.4% win rate (104,355 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.7% win rate (91,234 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.4% win rate (65,720 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.9% win rate (32,378 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.5% win rate (14,044 games)
  • 2500+: 54.0% win rate (1,708 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (61%), worst in Blitz (56%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 61.3% win rate (1,518 games)
  • Bullet: 56.0% win rate (262,728 games)
  • Blitz: 55.7% win rate (188,016 games)
  • Rapid: 56.5% win rate (61,192 games)
  • Classical: 61.3% win rate (2,355 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (11,525 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (15,751 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (5,667 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (31,734 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (30,633 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12,201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (43,908 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (38,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (15,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (49,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (39,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (14,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (821 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.4% expected score (304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (50,571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (31,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (8,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (612 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (41,225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (20,409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (3,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.6% expected score (169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (22,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (8,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (10,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (3,270 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (1,243 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (453 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 516K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (98K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.3%) outperforms Blitz (55.7%) by 5.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 104K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 61.3% (90% CI: 59.2%-63.3%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.2%) win rate for white (263K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (188K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit has a 61.3% (90% CI: 59.7%-63.0%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.