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Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.7%Based on 62K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%4.7%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...h6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=62K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.7%), based on 62K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (944 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (3,607 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (8,198 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.7% win rate (13,294 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.1% win rate (14,049 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.4% win rate (10,900 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (6,639 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (3,515 games)
  • 2500+: 40.9% win rate (784 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.5% win rate (41 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (14,287 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (34,656 games)
  • Rapid: 43.1% win rate (12,335 games)
  • Classical: 43.8% win rate (611 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (290 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (513 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,005 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (558 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,758 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,933 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (7,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (2,807 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (7,564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (3,254 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (195 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,376 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (5,848 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,445 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (3,930 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (927 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (360 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (405 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation
50.1%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.4%) outperforms Classical (48.9%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 944 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 784 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.7%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.9%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-52.2%) win rate for white (611 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.