9.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 53.5%), based on 9.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 46% → 58%
Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Rapid (48%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.1% win rate for white (722 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (50.9%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 45.1%-60.8%) win rate for white, based on 107 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 321 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 722 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.2%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.