16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 47.3%), based on 16K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 36%
Similar across time controls (~45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (4.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.7%) outperforms Classical (46.2%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 594 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 13.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.0%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.6%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.