12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 53.2%), based on 12K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 42%
Best in Rapid (49%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.6% win rate for white (4.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.9%) outperforms Rapid (48.7%) by -0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 91.2 (decisive), meaning 91.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 39.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.1%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 19.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (869 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.