TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.4%Based on 62K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%6.7%42.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bxf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=62K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 54.4%), based on 62K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.1% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.2% win rate (34 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.9% win rate (151 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (927 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (5,764 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (17,952 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (23,173 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (12,977 games)
  • 2500+: 48.6% win rate (1,408 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (16,740 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (40,504 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (4,989 games)
  • Classical: 43.8% win rate (155 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (517 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (372 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,289 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (4,133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (12,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (4,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (16,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (4,092 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (7,791 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (1,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (921 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (477 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.5%) outperforms Classical (43.8%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 927 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.6%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 37.3%-50.3%) win rate for white (155 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.