24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 54.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 54.9%), based on 24K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 52%
Best in Classical (53%), worst in Rapid (50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (8.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.9%) outperforms Classical (53.4%) by -1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 40.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 817 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.2%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.