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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation

194K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.4%Based on 194K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.5%5.3%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nbd7
Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation
Analyzen=194K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.4%), based on 194K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.4% win rate (762 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.6% win rate (2,911 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.6% win rate (8,016 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (17,886 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.5% win rate (33,632 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.0% win rate (45,249 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (41,461 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (33,548 games)
  • 2500+: 38.7% win rate (10,846 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.5% win rate (64 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (63,274 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (108,727 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (20,961 games)
  • Classical: 40.8% win rate (1,285 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,447 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,666 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (869 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (6,279 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (9,312 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (10,498 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (18,699 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (4,095 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (12,737 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (25,806 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (6,206 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (487 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (11,773 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (24,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (4,982 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (11,476 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (20,000 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (5,310 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (5,257 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (214 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 194K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (41K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.2%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 762 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white (109K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.8%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.1%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.