3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 49.4%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 48% → 37%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (330 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.1%) outperforms Bullet (45.8%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 43.8%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 110 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 43.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 265 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 612 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 992 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 11.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (958 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.8%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-53.4%) win rate for white (358 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.3%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.