Portuguese Opening
3 variations · 684K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
45.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 684K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 684K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #53 of 56
- Games in this context
- 684K
- Best context
- 56.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 27.1% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Variations measured
- 3
- Average game length
- 31 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.3% at 0-999, 64.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (617 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.0% expected score (30,060 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (74,853 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (100,942 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (1,788 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (1,074 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (17,338 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (48,550 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (30,637 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (2,409 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (1,736 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (19,656 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (61,022 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (32,993 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (2,864 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (1,495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (21,395 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (58,460 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (35,430 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.1% expected score (3,063 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (663 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (17,810 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (41,436 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (26,811 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (936 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (374 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,860 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (18,581 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (8,486 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (302 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (166 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,135 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (4,360 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,320 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (101 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,417 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (717 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (85 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (85 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 76.3% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
3 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Portuguese Opening family scores 45.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.6% and 45.8% — from 684K Lichess games across 3 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 684K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Portuguese Opening win rate?
Across the Portuguese Opening's 3 variations, White wins 43.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 684K rated games from Lichess.
How many Portuguese Opening variations are there?
3 Portuguese Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Portuguese Opening perform best?
The Portuguese Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.4% (118 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Portuguese Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Portuguese Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (308K games) against 44.0% in Rapid (237K games).
How sharp is the Portuguese Opening?
Portuguese Opening games are 95.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Portuguese Opening a good opening family?
The Portuguese Opening family is hard work for White — it favours Black overall. Across its games, White wins 43.4% and loses 52.1%. Results differ between its 3 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.