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Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit

7.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.4%

35%55%
Floor42.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.4%.

Measured over 7.1K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.1K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
7.1K
Best context
52.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
36.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 38.5% at 0-999, 30.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (385 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (941 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (152 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (420 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 28.5% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (110 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (269 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (283 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Portuguese Opening
43.4%
Variations (1)
Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit
33.1%
Analyze Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit scores 43.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.4% and 44.4% — from 7.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate?

Playing the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit, White wins 41.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 7.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit perform best?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (2.8K games) against 40.1% in Rapid (2.6K games).

How sharp is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 35.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 40.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 41.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 798 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 36.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 678 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 554 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 41.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 180 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 44.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 43.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 37.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 30.6%, draws 6.1% and loses 63.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.7%. It rests on 121 Lichess games.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit a good opening?

The Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 41.2% of its games and loses 54.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.