Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit
248 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
36.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 41.6%.
Measured over 248 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 248 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 248
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 26 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.0%
- Draws
- 7.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 32.1% at 0-999, 70.0% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | — | ||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 10.6% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (69 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit scores 36.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 31.7% and 41.6% — from 248 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 248+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate?
Playing the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit, White wins 33.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.6%. It rests on 248 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit perform best?
The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 36.5% (139 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 40.1% in Blitz (100 games) against 38.9% in Rapid (93 games).
How sharp is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit?
The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.
What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 32.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 59.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.5%. It rests on 139 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 36.9%, draws 6.4% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 100 Lichess games.
Is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit a good opening?
The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 33.1% of its games and loses 59.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.