Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation
1.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 1.4K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.4K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.9%
- Draws
- 5.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.6% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (79 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (51 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (60 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (84 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (89 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (70 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (98 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (74 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (135 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (72 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (71 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.4% and 50.8% — from 1.4K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.4K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 1.4K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation perform best?
The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 56.9% (114 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (682 games) against 45.8% in Rapid (162 games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation?
The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.0%, draws 16.0% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 152 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 124 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 136 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 229 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 185 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 227 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 207 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 55.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 114 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 513 Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 682 Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.7%, draws 10.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 162 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.