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Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit

1.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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4...dxc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.0%

45%60%
Floor52.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.8M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.8M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.8M
Best context
62.2% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
Worst context
44.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +6.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nc6 · Black wins: 51.1% · 1.7M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.3% at 0-999, 42.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (32,905 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (34,112 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (16,168 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (502 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (57,085 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (84,446 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (28,376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (525 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (83,125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (163,135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (56,400 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (99,462 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (213,763 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (89,960 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (3,171 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (87,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (200,899 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (86,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (3,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (140 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (68,229 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (140,329 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (50,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (1,559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (40,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (56,818 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16,979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (25,343 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,911 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (4,783 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (718 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack
48.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit scores 52.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.0% and 52.1% — from 1.8M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit, Black wins 50.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (304K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (907K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (348K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 171K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 304K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 407K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 379K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 261K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 114K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 55.4%, draws 1.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 499K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 907K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 348K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.5% of its games and loses 46.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.