TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score54.6%Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 55.0%Based on 47K games
0%54.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 55.0%
Outcome Distribution
52.7%3.6%43.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...a6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 54.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.2% and 55.0%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (4,165 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (7,184 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (9,737 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (10,562 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.3% win rate (8,010 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.8% win rate (5,536 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.7% win rate (1,341 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (660 games)
  • 2500+: 57.6% win rate (253 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (62%), worst in Bullet (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.0% win rate (184 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (8,236 games)
  • Blitz: 53.0% win rate (24,109 games)
  • Rapid: 53.1% win rate (14,326 games)
  • Classical: 62.0% win rate (593 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (801 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (2,340 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (4,355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (5,878 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.0% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,662 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (5,572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (3,668 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (2,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (904 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (3,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.9% expected score (338 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (419 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 88.1% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (62.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 660 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 253 Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 11.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-58.0%) win rate for white (184 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.6%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.5%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation has a 62.0% (90% CI: 58.7%-65.2%) win rate for white (593 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Woodchuck Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.