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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit

289K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.6%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.8%Based on 289K games
0%48.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%4.3%49.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nc3
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit
Analyzen=289K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 48.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 48.8%), based on 289K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.6% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (17,843 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (38,700 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (57,615 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (67,172 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.8% win rate (57,212 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.9% win rate (32,094 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (12,812 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (5,150 games)
  • 2500+: 44.6% win rate (693 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.6% win rate (374 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (107,896 games)
  • Blitz: 46.2% win rate (142,014 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (37,857 games)
  • Classical: 47.2% win rate (1,150 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (5,729 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9,117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,958 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (13,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (19,191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (6,305 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (19,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (29,232 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (8,534 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (263 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (22,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (34,565 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (9,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (20,152 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (29,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (6,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (257 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (14,553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (14,555 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (2,895 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (7,720 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (604 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,000 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Breyer Variation
51.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit
45.9%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Colorado Countergambit Accepted
47.4%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: El Columpio Defense
51.4%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 289K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (18K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.6%) by -0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.5%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 693 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-52.8%) win rate for white (374 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.5%) win rate for white (108K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white (142K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation, Marshall Gambit is statistically balanced with a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.