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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation

177K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%Based on 177K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%3.7%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation
Analyzen=177K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.5%), based on 177K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (31,945 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (26,249 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (25,095 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (24,968 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (22,131 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (19,092 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.6% win rate (14,930 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.9% win rate (10,684 games)
  • 2500+: 40.0% win rate (2,092 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (46%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.5% win rate (776 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (57,532 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (79,100 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (38,344 games)
  • Classical: 43.7% win rate (1,434 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,898 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (15,914 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (11,021 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (5,270 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (11,910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (8,723 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (6,321 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (11,309 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (7,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (234 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (7,389 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (11,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (5,599 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,568 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (9,778 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (3,392 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (192 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (8,927 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (8,420 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.1% expected score (60 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (7,947 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (6,158 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (746 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (6,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,724 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (347 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 177K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (58.2%) outperforms Classical (50.9%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.0%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.3%-61.1%) win rate for white (776 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Vehre Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.