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Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense

29K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.3%Range (90% confident): 40.8% – 41.8%Based on 29K games
0%41.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.8% – 41.8%
Outcome Distribution
39.6%3.3%57.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...f6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense
Analyzen=29K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 41.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.8% and 41.8%), based on 29K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.4% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 40% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.2% win rate (5,979 games)
  • 1000-1199: 37.6% win rate (5,632 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.7% win rate (5,462 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.6% win rate (4,649 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.7% win rate (3,678 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.7% win rate (2,098 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (876 games)
  • 2200-2499: 36.9% win rate (349 games)
  • 2500+: 32.9% win rate (76 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.6% win rate (91 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (7,335 games)
  • Blitz: 39.0% win rate (14,484 games)
  • Rapid: 35.2% win rate (6,517 games)
  • Classical: 30.4% win rate (372 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (879 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (3,245 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (1,828 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (980 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (2,938 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (1,378 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (1,288 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,505 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (2,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 33.4% expected score (980 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (116 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.8% expected score (493 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 19.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (802 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (219 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (434 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (378 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (235 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 31.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (40 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 59.3% win rate for white (5.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (65.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.9%) by 20.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.3%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 59.3% (90% CI: 58.2%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 57.4% (90% CI: 56.3%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.3%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 876 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 60.6% (90% CI: 56.3%-64.9%) win rate for white, based on 349 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.1%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.7%-58.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 60.7% (90% CI: 59.7%-61.7%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense has a 65.5% (90% CI: 61.4%-69.5%) win rate for white (372 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Neo-Mongoloid Defense is statistically favors white with a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.