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Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation

806K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.8%Based on 806K games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.8%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%3.7%51.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...d6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation
Analyzen=806K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 46.8%), based on 806K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~44%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.3% win rate (59,628 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.4% win rate (82,747 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (113,101 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.7% win rate (137,563 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (146,226 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (134,427 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (82,283 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.6% win rate (42,250 games)
  • 2500+: 42.8% win rate (7,904 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.7% win rate (3,951 games)
  • Bullet: 47.2% win rate (253,803 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (412,969 games)
  • Rapid: 41.2% win rate (130,339 games)
  • Classical: 36.0% win rate (5,067 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (120 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (12,596 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (31,148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (15,590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (254 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (19,637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (43,914 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (18,477 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (28,173 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (61,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (22,354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (955 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (36,700 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (73,191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (25,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (1,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (39,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (80,628 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (23,138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (44,207 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (72,717 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (16,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (508 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (35,719 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (38,136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (8,123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (29,995 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (10,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (6,830 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,028 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 7.9% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 806K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (83K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.1%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 138K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.4%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (254K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (413K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.1%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.4%-59.7%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Mikenas Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.