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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit

708K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.8%Based on 708K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%3.6%46.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit
Analyzen=708K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 51.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 51.8%), based on 708K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (19,037 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.4% win rate (39,452 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.5% win rate (67,919 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (101,032 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.8% win rate (149,881 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (181,067 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (112,058 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (33,532 games)
  • 2500+: 44.5% win rate (3,753 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (1,566 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (272,204 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (347,180 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (84,622 games)
  • Classical: 45.2% win rate (2,159 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (5,592 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (10,336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (3,014 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (20,478 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (7,052 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (259 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (22,243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (33,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (11,875 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (33,514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (51,646 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (14,939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (554 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (419 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (53,395 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (76,788 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (18,726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (64,855 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (96,698 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (18,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (498 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (53,456 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (49,506 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (8,917 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (24,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (8,141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (3,370 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (374 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 708K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (34K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (49.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 101K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 150K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 181K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.2%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.8%) win rate for white (272K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.4%) win rate for white (347K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.2%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit is statistically balanced with a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.