Source Lichess
Black wins at least 3.2 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit keeps Black's wins running +3.2% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 708K Lichess games. This gambit is playable but marginal. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −3.0% | 47.1% | 4.1% | 48.9% | 19K |
| 1000-1199 | −0.8% | 48.2% | 3.7% | 48.1% | 40K |
| 1200-1399 | −0.2% | 48.5% | 3.4% | 48.1% | 68K |
| 1400-1599 | +0.7% | 48.9% | 3.3% | 47.8% | 100K |
| 1600-1799 | +3.5% | 50.3% | 3.3% | 46.4% | 150K |
| 1800-1999 | +4.7% | 50.7% | 3.7% | 45.6% | 184K |
| 2000-2199 | +5.2% | 50.8% | 4.0% | 45.2% | 110K |
| 2200-2499 | +2.0% | 49.1% | 4.8% | 46.1% | 32K |
| 2500+ | +1.8% | 49.2% | 6.2% | 44.6% | 3.6K |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 1400+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 49.9% of Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit games, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. That rests on 708K games from Lichess.
2000-2199. There Black wins at least 5.2 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +3.1% in Blitz (347K games) and +0.9% in Rapid (85K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1000-1199 in Classical.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, de Smet Gambit is extremely sharp: 3.6% of its games are drawn, so 96.4% end with a winner.
At 1400+, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1400+, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 708K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.