Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation
72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.4%.
Measured over 72K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 72K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 72K
- Best context
- 48.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 37.2% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.2% at 0-999, 50.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,800 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (3,114 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (1,217 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.3% expected score (38 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (1,650 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (2,825 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (987 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (126 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (3,031 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,307 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (984 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (55 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (218 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (4,754 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (4,193 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (1,087 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (111 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (179 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (5,578 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (4,442 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (795 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (138 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (6,282 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,634 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (490 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (50 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (6,985 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,885 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (288 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (6,370 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,779 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (161 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,929 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (308 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation scores 45.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.4% — from 72K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 72K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 72K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.3% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (26K games) against 40.3% in Rapid (6.0K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 39.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 39.4%, draws 1.6% and loses 59.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 795 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 37.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 34.8%, draws 7.7% and loses 57.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 290 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Polish Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.2% of its games and loses 53.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.