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Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation

320K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 47.8%Based on 320K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%3.6%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...f5
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
Analyzen=320K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 47.8%), based on 320K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.9% win rate (5,518 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.1% win rate (9,038 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (18,949 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (35,552 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (58,689 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.3% win rate (75,424 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (66,125 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (42,028 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (8,406 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.3% win rate (2,282 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (200,443 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (101,235 games)
  • Rapid: 45.8% win rate (15,209 games)
  • Classical: 39.4% win rate (560 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,726 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (901 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (4,161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (9,659 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,617 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (17,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (14,927 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,624 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (665 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (31,227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (23,325 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (526 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (45,724 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (25,677 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,371 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (126 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (47,503 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (125 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (35,516 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (5,845 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (539 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (7,943 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (440 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Larsen Attack
51.1%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation
49.9%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Classical Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Indian Variation
49.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: English Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Symmetrical Variation
49.8%
Analyze Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 320K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (8.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.4%) outperforms Rapid (49.3%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.0%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.7%-55.1%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white (200K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.0%) win rate for white (101K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.9%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.1%) win rate for white (560 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.