Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
320K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.
Measured over 320K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 320K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 320K
- Best context
- 49.7% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.2% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.5% at 0-999, 41.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,857 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,726 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (901 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,635 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (4,161 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,149 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (221 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (9,659 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,405 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,617 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (475 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (17,379 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (14,927 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,624 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (147 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (665 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (31,227 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (23,325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,314 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (526 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (45,724 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (25,677 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,371 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (168 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (47,503 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,729 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,681 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.4% expected score (44 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (35,516 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (5,845 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (539 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (7,943 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (440 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 47.8% — from 320K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 320K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 320K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 48.4% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (101K games) against 48.3% in Rapid (15K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 200K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 101K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.4%, draws 6.9% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 560 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.9% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.