Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation
156K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.4%.
Measured over 156K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 156K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 156K
- Best context
- 58.2% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.4% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.1% at 0-999, 52.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (616 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (754 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (157 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,242 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (2,404 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (407 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (6,390 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (5,913 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (907 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11,608 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (9,543 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,184 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (60 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (114 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (16,343 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (10,433 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,302 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (174 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (17,504 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (9,691 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,658 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (78 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (17,660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (7,905 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (577 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (131 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (17,864 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,384 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (232 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (6,466 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (185 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.4% — from 156K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 156K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 156K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (1.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.6% in Blitz (50K games) against 52.9% in Rapid (8.4K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 55.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 54.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 592 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 97K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 50K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 203 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.6% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.