Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation

9.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.3%

45%55%
Floor48.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 9.5M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.5M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.5M
Best context
58.2% at 0-999 Classical
Worst context
42.5% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Ba3?? · Black wins: 56.2% · 2.2M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.6% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (127,382 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (199,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (67,563 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (3,333 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (249,349 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (349,190 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (109,803 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (2,082 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (10,711 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (500,295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (603,367 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (173,709 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (5,067 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (17,831 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (698,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (850,844 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (247,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (12,575 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (21,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (835,901 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (836,767 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (233,016 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (10,810 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (15,249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (804,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (590,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (142,968 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (6,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (6,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (610,332 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (311,802 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (51,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (3,510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (472,319 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (132,098 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (13,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (324 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (177,793 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (21,529 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,088 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (282 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Larsen Attack
51.1%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Classical Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Indian Variation
49.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: English Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Symmetrical Variation
49.8%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.2% and 48.3% — from 9.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate?

Playing the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 9.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (396K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (3.9M games) against 48.3% in Rapid (1.0M games).

How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 396K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 714K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 982K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 622K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.1%, draws 12.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 202K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 4.5M Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.9M Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.