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Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation

9.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.3%Based on 9.5M games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%3.7%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation
Analyzen=9.5M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 48.3%), based on 9.5M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Ba3?? · Black wins: 56.2% · n=2.2M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (395,996 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.9% win rate (713,757 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (1,293,149 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (1,826,609 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (1,937,998 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.0% win rate (1,559,231 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (981,849 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (621,900 games)
  • 2500+: 40.1% win rate (202,008 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.4% win rate (80,320 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (4,475,683 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (3,895,672 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (1,041,573 games)
  • Classical: 45.0% win rate (39,249 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (127,382 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (199,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (67,563 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (3,333 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (249,349 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (349,190 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (109,803 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (2,082 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (10,711 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (500,295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (603,367 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (173,709 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (5,067 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (17,831 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (698,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (850,844 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (247,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (12,575 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (21,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (835,901 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (836,767 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (233,016 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (10,810 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (15,249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (804,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (590,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (142,968 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (6,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (6,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (610,332 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (311,802 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (51,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (3,510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (472,319 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (132,098 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (13,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (324 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (177,793 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (21,529 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,088 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (282 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Larsen Attack
51.1%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Classical Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Indian Variation
49.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: English Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Symmetrical Variation
49.8%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (1.3M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 396K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 714K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 982K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 622K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 202K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 12.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.1%) win rate for white (80K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white (4.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (3.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white (1.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.4%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Modern Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.