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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit

644 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.9%Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 50.2%Based on 644 games
0%46.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%1.9%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qxb2
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
Analyzen=644
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate1.9%

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 46.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.7% and 50.2%), based on 644 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 9% → 53%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 9.1% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 17.2% win rate (13 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.9% win rate (23 games)
  • 1600-1799: 34.5% win rate (55 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.6% win rate (151 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.8% win rate (155 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.0% win rate (194 games)
  • 2500+: 52.5% win rate (49 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (60%), worst in Classical (20%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 43.9% win rate (405 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (217 games)
  • Rapid: 60.0% win rate (21 games)
  • Classical: 20.0% win rate (1 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 29.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 644 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (194 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Bullet (43.9%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a sharpness score of 98.1 (very decisive), meaning 98.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 37.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-48.0%) win rate for white (405 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 42.7%-53.8%) win rate for white (217 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.