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Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation

2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score43.7%Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 45.5%Based on 2.0K games
0%43.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
41.3%4.7%54.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qb6
Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation
Analyzen=2.0K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 41.8% and 45.5%), based on 2.0K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.2% win rate (33 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.7% win rate (82 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.5% win rate (153 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.5% win rate (320 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.7% win rate (519 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.1% win rate (341 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.0% win rate (360 games)
  • 2500+: 46.3% win rate (140 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Blitz (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 42.2% win rate (627 games)
  • Blitz: 40.3% win rate (1,110 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (215 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (7 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 35.8% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.4% expected score (175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (144 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 43.7% win rate for white (519 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (42.2%) outperforms Rapid (43.2%) by -1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 38.5% (90% CI: 32.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 153 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 37.5% (90% CI: 33.1%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 320 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 519 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 38.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 341 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 35.8%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 360 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 39.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 39.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (627 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 37.9%-42.7%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.7%-48.7%) win rate for white (215 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation is slightly favors black with a 41.3% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.