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Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 52.0%Based on 27K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%3.8%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e5
Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense
Analyzen=27K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.9% and 52.0%), based on 27K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (798 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (1,892 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (3,643 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.5% win rate (5,412 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (6,176 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (5,297 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (2,665 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.6% win rate (756 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (83 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.4% win rate (46 games)
  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (6,148 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (14,559 games)
  • Rapid: 48.3% win rate (5,759 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (210 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (215 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (447 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (288 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (790 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,008 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (1,292 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,409 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (845 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,354 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (382 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.1% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.1% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.1%) outperforms Classical (49.4%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 43.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 798 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 756 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.4%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.3%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-55.1%) win rate for white (210 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.