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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation

117 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score41.1%Range (90% confident): 33.9% – 48.7%Based on 117 games
0%41.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 33.9% – 48.7%
Outcome Distribution
39.2%3.8%57.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bxd4
Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation
Analyzen=117
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a 41.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 33.9% and 48.7%), based on 117 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 55%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1600-1799: 17.6% win rate (7 games)
  • 1800-1999: 63.0% win rate (12 games)
  • 2000-2199: 29.6% win rate (34 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.1% win rate (47 games)
  • 2500+: 54.8% win rate (14 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 41.5% win rate (31 games)
  • Blitz: 37.0% win rate (81 games)
  • Rapid: 45.5% win rate (4 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399———
1400-1599————
1600-1799———
1800-1999——
2000-2199———
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a 39.2% (90% CI: 32.0%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 117 rated games from Lichess.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

Is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation is slightly favors black with a 39.2% (90% CI: 32.0%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.