431 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 57.1%), based on 431 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 55% → 14%
Best in Blitz (54%), worst in Classical (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 431 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (63 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (53.9%) outperforms Bullet (46.0%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 39.5%-52.6%) win rate for white (156 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-59.7%) win rate for white (196 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense is statistically balanced with a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-54.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.