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King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening

354K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.7%Based on 354K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%4.2%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c4
King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening
Analyzen=354K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 48.7%), based on 354K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.6% win rate (49,593 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (57,827 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (65,385 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (67,564 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (60,117 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (35,276 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (13,025 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (4,425 games)
  • 2500+: 49.2% win rate (451 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (185 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (51,259 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (186,308 games)
  • Rapid: 44.8% win rate (110,440 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (5,471 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (6,572 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (25,990 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (16,768 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (242 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,933 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (31,116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (18,043 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (708 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (8,084 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (34,030 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (22,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (33,746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (22,193 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (1,776 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (6,827 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (33,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (18,998 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (1,198 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,853 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (20,467 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (9,627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (323 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,340 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,399 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (2,447 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,692 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (277 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (405 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening
48.3%
King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit
49.5%
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit
53.4%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit
47.3%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 354K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (4.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.2%) outperforms Classical (41.1%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 451 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 48.0% (90% CI: 42.0%-54.0%) win rate for white (185 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.6%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white (186K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.1%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a 41.1% (90% CI: 40.0%-42.2%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening is statistically balanced with a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.