71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.4% and 56.0%), based on 71K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 55%
Best in Bullet (54%), worst in UltraBullet (27%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 71K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (5.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.7%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 53.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 340 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.8%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.2%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.6%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.4%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System has a 49.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-55.2%) win rate for white (171 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.