561 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.4% and 50.3%), based on 561 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 35%
Best in Classical (71%), worst in Bullet (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 561 rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (66 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.0%) outperforms Bullet (37.7%) by 8.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 40.2%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 38.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 182 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 39.4% (90% CI: 33.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 162 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 37.7% (90% CI: 30.4%-45.2%) win rate for white (114 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 41.7%-50.3%) win rate for white (367 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.