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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit

549K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.3%Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.4%Based on 549K games
0%45.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%2.7%53.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxe4
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit
Analyzen=549K
Avg Length25 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 45.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 45.4%), based on 549K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.1 · Trap factor: -6.8 · n=549K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.6% · UltraBullet best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.4% win rate (51,570 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.9% win rate (84,795 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (115,826 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.7% win rate (119,756 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.7% win rate (93,400 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.0% win rate (55,741 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (22,122 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.0% win rate (5,314 games)
  • 2500+: 48.8% win rate (536 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Bullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.3% win rate (456 games)
  • Bullet: 42.7% win rate (130,348 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (262,310 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (150,210 games)
  • Classical: 48.9% win rate (5,736 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (13,083 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (21,816 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (16,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (146 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (21,574 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (40,941 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (21,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (491 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (23,997 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (56,336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (34,212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (24,755 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (56,030 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (36,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (1,974 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 77.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (20,312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (46,965 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (24,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (1,457 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (14,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (28,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (12,629 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (486 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (8,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (10,346 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (3,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (457 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (79 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 549K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (52K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (58.3%) outperforms Bullet (42.7%) by 15.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 93K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 536 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-62.0%) win rate for white (456 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-42.9%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.6%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.9%) win rate for white (150K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.