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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 48.9%Based on 1.5M games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 48.9%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%3.2%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bb5+
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line
Analyzen=1.5M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 48.9%), based on 1.5M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.3% win rate (32,977 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (116,020 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (236,495 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (326,393 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (322,691 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.5% win rate (237,059 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (121,198 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (59,036 games)
  • 2500+: 50.5% win rate (10,881 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.2% win rate (376 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (388,928 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (753,457 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (307,970 games)
  • Classical: 44.2% win rate (12,019 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (13,731 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (13,312 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (5,880 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (40,314 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (54,470 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (20,930 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (64,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (121,359 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (49,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (960 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (79,138 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (167,849 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (76,211 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (3,083 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (71,804 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (170,742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (75,731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (4,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (54,000 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (126,387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (54,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (34,794 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (65,384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (20,361 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (648 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (24,066 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (29,617 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,267 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (6,262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (4,337 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (23 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.2%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 11.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 236K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 326K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 323K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 237K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 55.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-59.4%) win rate for white (376 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (389K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white (753K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white (308K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.9%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.