2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 46.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 48.5%), based on 2.5K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 66% → 47%
Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (27%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (331 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.5%) outperforms Rapid (38.1%) by 12.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 41.6% (90% CI: 34.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 35.4%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 424 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 36.7%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 38.3%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 39.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 412 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 331 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.9%) win rate for white (611 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 38.1% (90% CI: 34.4%-41.8%) win rate for white (462 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.