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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation

1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score40.6%Range (90% confident): 38.3% – 42.8%Based on 1.3K games
0%40.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.3% – 42.8%
Outcome Distribution
38.9%3.4%57.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Qh4
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation
Analyzen=1.3K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 40.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 38.3% and 42.8%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.5 · Trap factor: -27.3 · n=1.3K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.0% · Blitz best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 31.0% win rate (13 games)
  • 1200-1399: 25.4% win rate (32 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.5% win rate (90 games)
  • 1600-1799: 28.6% win rate (189 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.8% win rate (414 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.0% win rate (355 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (179 games)
  • 2500+: 33.3% win rate (24 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (41%), worst in Rapid (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 37.8% win rate (354 games)
  • Blitz: 41.0% win rate (716 games)
  • Rapid: 33.0% win rate (215 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (12 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 25.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 24.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 35.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (207 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 38.9% (90% CI: 36.6%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (179 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (41.0%) outperforms Rapid (33.0%) by 8.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 28.6% (90% CI: 23.4%-34.1%) win rate for white, based on 189 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 36.9%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 35.7%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 42.4%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 33.6%-42.1%) win rate for white (354 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 38.0%-44.1%) win rate for white (716 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 33.0% (90% CI: 27.9%-38.4%) win rate for white (215 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation is slightly favors black with a 38.9% (90% CI: 36.6%-41.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.