TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation

7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 54.3%Based on 7.9K games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%8.3%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Nc3
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation
Analyzen=7.9K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.3%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 54.3%), based on 7.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +23.6% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 52% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.4% win rate (9 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.5% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.2% win rate (39 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.3% win rate (68 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.1% win rate (211 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (993 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (2,278 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (3,621 games)
  • 2500+: 59.9% win rate (696 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (2,709 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (4,714 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (484 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (24 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (90 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (385 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (518 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (587 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,089 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (2,386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (514 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.1% expected score (175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.9% win rate for white (696 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Rapid (41.3%) by 9.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 37.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 59.9% (90% CI: 56.8%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 696 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.3%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 37.6%-45.0%) win rate for white (484 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.